Horsefeathers - IRAQ: WE DID THE RIGHT THING

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February 01, 2004

IRAQ: WE DID THE RIGHT THING

During this election year we are bound to hear charges leveled against the administration by those opposed to the war. The major charges will be (a) that the main reason for going to war against Iraq was because Saddam possessed WMD and could use them at any time or sell them to terrorists, and these reasons turned out to be baseless. (b) The administration pressured the intelligence analysts into manipulating the evidence so that it seemed that the Saddam threat was serious and imminent. (c) If Saddam had no WMD and he was a toothless tiger, there was no need to spend blood and treasure.

Last week David Kay the NON-POLITICAL former weapons inspector in Iraq testified at the Senate Armed Services Committee meeting.

Here are some excerpts from David Kay’s testimony that bear on the charges mentioned above (the underlining is Horsefeathers’).

The President based his decision to depose the Saddam regime in large measure on information and judgments made by intelligence analysts.

Were these intelligence analysts right?

Let me begin by saying, we were almost all wrong, and I certainly include myself here….Senator Kennedy and I talked on several occasions prior to the war, that my view was that the best evidence that I had seen was that Iraq, indeed, had weapons of mass destruction.
….proliferation is a hard thing to track, particularly in countries that deny easy and free access and don't have free and open societies.

Were the Iraqis in violation of the United Nations Resolutions?

In my judgment, based on the work that has been done to this point of the Iraq Survey Group, and in fact, that I reported to you in October, Iraq was in clear violation of the terms of Resolution 1441. Resolution 1441 required that Iraq report all of its activities: one last chance to come clean about what it had.

We have discovered hundreds of cases, based on both documents, physical evidence and the testimony of Iraqis, of activities that were prohibited under the initial U.N. Resolution 687 and that should have been reported under 1441, with Iraqi testimony that not only did they not tell the U.N. about this, they were instructed not to do it and they hid material.

Let me be absolutely clear about it – Iraq was in clear and material violation of 1441. They maintained programs and activities, and they certainly had the intentions at a point to resume their program. So there was a lot they wanted to hide because it showed what they were doing that was illegal. I hope we find even more evidence of that.

Did Kay find evidence of attempts by the administration to put pressure on the intelligence analysts to come up with answers it wanted to hear?
And let me take one of the explanations most commonly given: Analysts were pressured to reach conclusions that would fit the political agenda of one or another administration. I deeply think that is a wrong explanation. . . .

Never - not in a single case - was the explanation, "I was pressured to do this." The explanation was very often, “The limited data we had led one to reasonably conclude this. I now see there's another explanation for it."

If there were no WMD programs in Iraq when we invaded why was it necessary to go to war?

….I think the world is far safer with the disappearance and the removal of Saddam Hussein. I have said I actually think this may be one of those cases where it was even more dangerous than we thought.

I think when we have the complete record you're going to discover that after 1998 it became a regime that was totally corrupt. Individuals were out for their own protection. And in a world where we know others are seeking WMD, the likelihood at some point in the future of a seller and a buyer meeting up would have made that a far more dangerous country than even we anticipated ….

Kay, in exchange with Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., on why he supported removing Saddam:
McCain: Saddam Hussein developed and used weapons of mass destruction; true?

Kay: Absolutely.

McCain: He used them against the Iranians and the Kurds?

Kay: Oh, yes.

McCain: And U.N. inspectors found enormous quantities of banned chemical and biological weapons in Iraq in the '90s?

Kay: Yes, sir.

McCain: We know that Saddam Hussein had once a very active nuclear program.

Kay: Yes.

MCCain: And he realized and had ambitions to develop and use weapons of mass destruction.

Kay: Clearly.

McCain: If he were in power today, there is no doubt that he would harbor ambitions for the development and use of weapons of mass destruction?

Kay: There's absolutely no doubt.

McCain: You agree. . . that what we did was justified and enhanced the security of the U.S. and the world by removing Saddam Hussein from power?

Kay: Absolutely.

THE BENEFITS OF THE DESTRUCTION OF THE SADDAM REGIME

1. The destruction of the most formidable Islamic military force in the middle east.

2. Decrease in the need for Iraqs neighbors to arm themselves which leads to a general reduction in the middle east arms race.

3. The presence of the U.S. in Iraq—the very heart of the middle east—is a stabilizing force.

4. Our presence and increased credibility as a power has made Syria more cautious and cooperative in the war against terror.

5. Our presence has made Iran more cooperative with respect to nuclear inspection, and encouraged some more democratic elements in Iran.

6. Our presence has radically changed Libya’s attitudes about WMD—and they are cooperating in inspections completely.

7. Even the Saudis have changed their tune and are becoming more cooperative in the war against terror.

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Comments

Yale, you will get no argument from me on any of the points that you raise. I think, without any equivocation, that removing Saddam was the right thing to do. And those who think otherwise, can just stew in their own juices!

But... I don't think anyone can deny we now have a very big problem--as a matter of both world perception and foreign policy initiatives--with our information-gathering capabilities. It's probably stating the obvious to say that a pre-emptive war based even in part on faulty intelligence is probably not such a good thing. At some point we may have to do this again (N. Korea, anyone?) and it is imperative that we know exactly what we are dealing with.

Of course, in light of the Kay report, and unless something changes, selling the next pre-emption to a skeptical world will for the time be all but impossible.

Posted by: Bernard at February 1, 2004 12:30 PM

Yale, I agree whole-heartedly with what you said. As I wrote to friends at the time" "What are we waiting for? Saddam's Iraq delenda est! IT MUST BE DESTROYED."

I think Kerry and the whole pack of wimp Democrats are pathetic. Poor old Lieberman is getting clobbered and he is the best of the lot. But Kerry has tens of millions and Hollywood makeup artists (he needs it...he DOES look a little like the MONSTER in a famous novel).

But if Kerry Loses in South Carolina and Oklahoma he doesn't look so great. In any case the Democratic primary doesn't mean what it once did. How many former democrats are independents and Republicans. More than the Dems like to think about! I myself was a registered Democrat for all of the 20th century. Heck i used help get out the vote and count votes in my precinct. My father personally delivered over 100 voters to the polls in November 1964 for LBJ (he regreted it for the rest of his life not because of Civil Rights but because he felt LBJ deceived him on Vietnam). But the years 1968-1972 were the turning point though many did not realize it at the time. I personally think the Democratic party is past redemption; it is just awash with undemocratic principals and quotas for radical fringe groups. Neither FDR nor TRUMAN would recognize it and JFK would NEVER get the nomination today because the Democrats tilt towards No Nothing anti-Catholicism. The Dems are mostly about HATE and RESENTMENT not about NATIONAL UNITY (of which they know almost nothing) and RECONCILIATION. They are the party of TAKE.

Don't get me wrong, the Republicans have their own problems and they own looney fringe. But since their "diversity" is mostly window-dressing they can fight off their looney fringe which the democrats cannot since the looney fringe with guaranteed percentages and delegate wield enornmous power.

But at least the Republicans understand we have a country and one of the top priorities of a government is to PROTECT OUR SECURITY ("provide for the common defense"). If a government doesn't do this what does the rest matter? This is not to say that is the only job of govenment. A modern government MUST look after the common welfare etc.
No one sensible argues about this.

The devil is in the details. But in a time of great national danger the Democrats have it all wrong. They are giving the impression that if Hitler were in power they would be APPEASERS. You can't appease Islamofascism. Appeasing the crocks and double-crossing a democracy was a bad policy in 1938 and to follow that same path in the 21st century would be equally stupid and cowardly.

Maybe Bush isn't the sharpest, wittiest president we ever had. But he has proved to me he has character and courage and he is loved by our military, a military that was demoralized and undercut by the Clintons.

IF we ever are going to have peace we must erradicate the threat of Islamofascism and Terrorism. If we cannot erradicate it we must at least contain it and keep them fighting in and around their bases. I fully expect a major terrorist attack here in the states there was a big one in Iraq 57 dead and hundreds of wounded. That was a message to Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair, in my opinion that this is war to the knife. They have only one chance -and it is what they deeply believe- that we are weak carnal materialists like the "Romans" of old and we will flinch. They have time on their side, they believe. It's a 700 year plan. This is not crazy or something I made up. Just read the reports about what these fanatics talk about. This is a clash of civilizations make no mistake about it.

Posted by: Ricardo Munro at February 1, 2004 12:37 PM

It was the State Dept that urged the UN strategy---delay mililtary action and pursue the impossible--support from France and Germany. This bizarre strategy gave Saddam ample time to destroy or remove WMD's to Syria. Meanwhile, the WMD's became a central reason in the case made to the UN. The delay caused Turkey to withdraw support and created other major logistical problems. Had we ignored the UN and simply moved militarily against Iraq 6 mos. earlier, on geo-strategic grounds we'd have been far better off now. The State Dept. should be called to account.

Posted by: Stephen at February 1, 2004 03:15 PM

Stephen, I think any investigation should properly include all players and all possibilities as to why the assessments on which action were taken now appear to be wrong.

Of course, as you point out, intelligence is a degradable resource and the facts of the matter may well have changed over time. Absent a complete investigation of what happened, any guess is as good as another.

Posted by: Bernard at February 2, 2004 12:27 AM

If Iraq was in violation of 1441, that was up to the UN to decide, not David Kay. And to call him politically neutral on this is immature.

Posted by: Hired Contrarian at February 2, 2004 09:45 AM

HC, why is it you are always trying to pick a fight? Seems rather inconsistent for one who argues that those with whom you disagree should be nothing but pacific.

Posted by: Bernard at February 2, 2004 11:53 AM

Bernard, would you prefer a psychological diagnosis instead?

Posted by: Hired Contrarian at February 2, 2004 01:57 PM

Although it was touched on briefly in the main body of the post as a further benefit to accrue from the overthrow of Saddam's regime, Quadafi's declaration of Libya's WMD programs reportedly came as a surprise to everyone. If that is so, then that too must count as an intelligence failure, and one has to wonder what other disconcerting discoveries await us.

Those who criticize the President today for a failure to find stockpiles of WMD in Iraq should perhaps temper their criticism with the understanding that an independent commission might well determine that not only did WMD exist in Iraq before the war, but that stockpiles not hidden or destroyed during the six month delay in hostilities were, in fact, shipped into Syria. If that turns out to be the case, then who bears the responsibility for that? And even more importantly, what--besides blaming the President--do we do about it?

Posted by: Bernard at February 2, 2004 07:48 PM

Poiffect -- let's have an investigation. And while Bush is appointing his investigators, maybe Ken Lay can be in charge of one on Enron?

Posted by: HIred Contrarian at February 3, 2004 08:29 AM

No, I have a better idea. Let's put Bill Clinton in charge of the investigation, and let HIM explain to the American people how he got it so wrong.

Posted by: Bernard at February 3, 2004 09:40 AM

iIf Iraq was in violation of 1441, that was up to the UN to decide, not David Kay.

Actually, the UN decided that not only was Iraq in violation of 1441, Iraq was in material breach. They also decided there was a final opportunity for full and unconditional compliance. They also decided failure would result in serious consequences. They also decided that all previous Resolutions remained in effect.

If you read them, they authorized the use of force. If you read the Congressional authorization it cited this UN based authority for military action.

It's impossible to discuss anything with someone whose sole intent is to be contrary to facts, truth and reason and who remains dedicated to folly, ignorance, and cant.

Posted by: Grumpy at February 3, 2004 10:58 AM

It's probably stating the obvious to say that a pre-emptive war based even in part on faulty intelligence is probably not such a good thing.

The most obvious thing that meeds to be stated is that the word pre-emptive keeps beeing tossed around without regard to meaning. Pre-emptive of what?

-"Preemptive" of the rights of rogue states to violate a ceasefire agreement and twelve years of Security Council Resolutions?

-"Preemptive" of the right to refuse to comply with the requirement of full and unconditional disclosure and unfettered inspection and then demand "evidence"?

Isn't it equally obvious that none of the "faults" in the intelligence changes the facts or reasoning outlined above that led to the decision --that the only rational response to the grave and gathering threats of Saddam Hussein was to take military action?

At some point we may have to do this again (N. Korea, anyone?) and it is imperative that we know exactly what we are dealing with.

We did know exactly who we were dealing with and we knew exactly that he had spent 12 years violating a cease-fire and seeking banned weapons that he had previously demonstarted a willingness to use. The understanding that Saddam Hussein was in material breach of every requirement of the cease fire agreement was in no way compromised by any intelligence fault. There was no requirement of the UN, the US, or anyone other than Sadam Hussein to "prove" anything regarding WMD.

We can't know anything exactly. What's imperative is that we strive to know as much as we can and make the best decision possible.

Maybe it's stating the obvious, but we need to distinguish between a "skeptical" world, a cynical world, an irrational world, and - most important to the issues at hand- we need to realize that there actually are real threats to the US and real threats to freedom and democracy.

Not all the players involved have pledged to call off their war if only someone can present an argument that the "skeptics" deem acceptable.

As the President said-- trusting in the sanity of Saddam Hussein is not an option.

Trusting in the reasoning of skeptics isn't an option either.

Posted by: Grumpy at February 3, 2004 11:55 AM

Hey Grumpy, you're preaching to the choir. I mentioned pre-emption in regards to what I thought was a clearly implied supposition about future threats, not as a criticism of what has already been done. (An action, btw, if you'll do me the courtesy, is something I've consistently supported.) Besides, to be accurate, I said if it turns out that we have to do this again "we need to know exactly WHAT we are dealing with" not WHOM we are dealing with. We knew what Saddam was, as we know what Kim il Jong is. That, if I may be allowed to make a distinguishing point, is not the problem.

Posted by: Bernard at February 3, 2004 01:21 PM

Bernard-- relax.

I didn't miss what you said. We can't know "exactly" what we are dealing with if skeptics- and worse- get to determine both what we need to know, and whether or not it is exact enough.

Any decision made regarding North Korea is also going to have to be made- just as it was made in regard to Sadam Hussein and Iraq- without any exact and precise knowledge regarding the state of WMD and their precise quantity and location.

If the decision is going to made rationally, it will have to take into account what we know of North Korea's actions in the past and whether it makes any sense to make a decision based on either the sanity of North Korea or the rationality of "skeptics".

You mentioned that unless something changes, we'll have difficulty ( you even suggest "impossibility") selling the next "pre-emption" to a skeptical world.

Well, sure, of course we will. All the more so if we fail to flatly and forcefully reject ( in a word, pe-empt)- as with Iraq- false applications of "pre-emption" and false presumptions of what we needed to know about WMD, who was responsible to provide any needed evidence, and who was responsible for the "failure" of more countries to join the multilateral response to the US and Great Britain.

The article we're commenting on did quite a fine job of recognizing the framework and applicable facts.

Responses that continue to focus on and question the allied response on the basis of lack of finding ( to date!) stockpiles of WMD are not accurately described as "skeptical", they are more accurately described as nonsensical and dangerous.

Nothing at all in the ceasefire or the UN Resolutions required anyone other than Saddam Hussein and his regime to produce "evidence."

If their was any "failure" involved that led to military action, it wasn't a failure of intelligence agencies, it was a failure of "skeptics" to comprehend reality and apply their concerns and resulting pressures in any sensible direction that could have achieved the stated goals of the UN Resolutions without military action.

Posted by: Grumpy at February 3, 2004 02:06 PM

Grumpy--no worries.

Technically you are right, pre-intervention the failure to account for WMD was Saddam's problem and not ours. But post-intervention, fairly or not, the problem seems to have gone to our side.

Now, the weapons either did or did not exist. We already know the programs existed, and we also know that certain of those weapons did in fact exist at some prior point because, well, otherwise how to explain all those dead Iranians and Kurds? So, the interesting thing will be to find out what happened. The WMD existed, then they didn't... just *poof* they were gone. Or, as some would have us believe, they were all a figment of our collective imagination from the start.

But if they existed and are no longer to be found, well, they were either destroyed or were removed to another locale--in which case I'm sure even the most strident pacifist might see a problem.

And that doesn't even address the possible transfer of weapons-making capability or knowledge, an issue for some (to judge by their yawns) that holds no interest.

These are all issues that need addressing, because the failure to find something that by all the best estimates *should* have been found is, to my mind, no reason to relax.

And that is why we must have an investigation--to find out what we don't now know. And to make sure that next time we need to rely on intelligence, that it is better than just an educated guess.

Posted by: Bernard at February 3, 2004 05:41 PM

Porphyrogenitus has a post on this subject that is well worth checking out: http://www.porphyrogenitus.net/archives/week_2004_02_01.html#002134

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